Are We Headed For AI Armageddon?

Regular listeners of our podcast, 'Small Business Intelligence', are aware that CIC scours the media every day, looking for news articles of significance to small business owners.  And then on the podcast, we talk about how the news could impact their business.  We don't report the news.  We help entrepreneurs understand what the news means, and what they should be doing in response to how current events are changing the small business environment. 

This past month has been very interesting.  The top news category, out of the 25 categories we track, was technology.  And within technology, everyone nowadays is talking about artificial intelligence.  AI headlines are everywhere.  And very little of the news about AI, I'm sorry to say, is good. 

Looking at the 'forest through the trees', so to speak, one thing appears certain, which is that AI is here and it isn't going anywhere.  It's here to stay, and it's only going to get bigger and better.  There's no stopping it.  The challenge, therefore, is to anticipate how AI is going to continue to evolve, and how it could impact small business consumers and owners. 

The whole AI topic reminds me of nuclear proliferation.  When I was a school kid back in the early 1970's, we used to practice nuclear bomb drills, which involved hiding under your desk.  Years later I learned this wouldn't make a damn bit of difference if a nuke went off, but at least we felt like we were doing something.  Society was fearful of a nuclear war.  So was the government.  In the years that followed, the United States and Russia engaged in a nuclear arms race - termed the 'Cold War' - until both sides conceded that they each had more than enough bombs to destroy the entire universe and it wasn't necessary to make any more.  Might we see similar cooperation on AI?  Let's hope so because that's the only way we're going to prevent AI Armageddon. 

AI has democratized intelligence and innovation.  Anyone, anywhere in the world with a smart phone can use AI to do just about anything, good and bad.  From a small business competitive standpoint, the defensive mote has all but been erased.  It has never be easier to start a new business.  We talked about this on a recent podcast episode.  With very little money, a business can be up and running in no time, doing almost anything imaginable.  As a CIC business advisor and SCORE mentor, I work with a lot of these aspiring entrepreneurs.  I hear about their ideas, and I help them bring their vision to life. 

Like it was with nuclear proliferation, fear is at the core of the current AI discussion.  Do we need to pump the brakes on AI?  Maybe.  I think what people are looking for right now are some guardrails, which wouldn't be a bad idea.  Exactly what that looks like and who will be responsible for developing and regulating the 'rules of the road' will be defined in the months and years ahead. 

I'll tell you what I'm most concerned about with AI, and that's open-source AI, which effectively means AI that nobody owns and controls.  It's AI in the public domain that anyone can use and improve.  We talked on the last podcast episode about how AI itself isn't bad.  It's the people using it in harmful ways that are bad.  Open-source AI is a potential recipe for disaster.  I'll let the architects and regulators worry about how to address that. 

Even in controlled environments, some of the recent news about AI is downright frightening.  Keep in mind, these are events that have already happened, not what could happen in the future.  Based on what's already happened, use your imagination about what could happen next and you'll understand why people are fearful.  I'm referring to tests that went awry, broke out of the established boundaries, went rogue, and attacked other systems.  And it was very difficult to reel the rampant system back in (China had to come to the rescue).  That's what scared everybody. 

I'm not technologically savvy enough to know whether or not the predictions about an AI apocalypse are realistic.  But what I do know is that if something is predictable, that means it's also preventable.  The tech community has a lot of great minds working on preventing a doomsday scenario from happening.  Accordingly, I'm going to operate with the expectation that, much like a nuclear war has never happened, the same will be true about AI.  The challenges associated with AI will eventually be mitigated.  We're feeling some of the growing pains now, and there likely will be more to come.  As I said earlier, AI is here to stay.  It's not going away.  We need to learn how to live with it.  It's a work in progress, and we're just getting started.  

So, getting back to the theme of the podcast:  What should small business owners be doing today to prepare for what we anticipate might happen in the future?  As it pertain to AI Armageddon, the answer is nothing.  If the doomsdayers are right, you don't have to worry about preparing for anything because you won't be here anymore.  The only thing we need to prepare for is if the fatalists are wrong.  And I believe they will be wrong because mankind has time to counter the worst-case scenarios we're reading about in the media.  The same people who created AI, and those who will come after them, will figure out how to control this technology so it’s used for good purposes because it's in our collective best interest to do so. 

What does an AI-enhanced world look like, for consumers and small businesses?  The goal of any technology is to make life better, or easier, for people.  So, let's assume that happens.  How will people respond to a life made easier by technology?  Perhaps it will mean they'll have more interest in and time for leisure activities.  Small businesses that contribute to an easier lifestyle should, therefore, have an advantage.  This is a super-simple example.  The point is to emphasize the importance of thinking ahead, which is the theme of the podcast and our blog posts. 

Small business owners are people, too.  How can technology make their life easier?  These are the questions we need to be thinking about and discussing.  I don't have the answers.  I merely ask the questions to get the thinking process started.  Each business owner should be able to answer that question on their own.  Not everyone will answer it correctly.  That's how business works.  Success is reserved for those who have the clearest strategic vision.  All I can do is challenge entrepreneurs with questions as a way to sharpen their strategic vision, which will help them make the best possible decisions. 

What I also know is that at the core of every good business is relationships.  And perhaps it has never been more important to have good relationships than right now.  Particularly, good customer relationships.  If small business owners are going to focus on one thing, let it be that.  This should be your competitive advantage, no matter what type of business you're in. 

Will AI systems ever be able to mimic human relationships?  They're certainly trying, I can tell you that.  Will the effort succeed?  The answer doesn't matter because people will never stop craving true human connection.  AI agents are getting better at making you think they're real.  To the point where every digital interaction is now suspected of being fake.  Phone calls, emails, text messages, and even videoconferencing calls, you're wondering, "Is this person real?"  A simulated human is not going to cut it when you desire true connection.  And if you get caught trying to be deceitful, you should expect people to revolt. 

One of the things we do with our podcast is create a monthly economic summary report.  Well, we don't actually create the report, AI does.  We just feed the news articles (usually around 750 of them) into ChatGPT and prompt it to tell us what it all means.  We also use a computer-generated voice to transcribe the executive summary portion of the report so people can listen to it instead of reading it (you can do either, actually).  And we're 100% transparent about it.  We proudly tell people, this was done entirely by AI.  The only thing we do is review it for accuracy before we release it, which is always a good practice.  And I have to say, AI does an amazing job.  Better than any human could do, in a fraction of the time.  This is what we consider to be a good use of AI.  

I'll end by quoting something I've said numerous times on the podcast.  Small business owners have enough things to worry about.  I advise my clients not to worry about the things they aren't in control of or that they can't change.  If the 'Terminator' movie becomes reality, which I'm NOT predicting (I'm thinking hypothetically), entrepreneurs will still exist.  People will still need to buy things in order to live.  The current monetary system may be replaced by barter exchange, but there will still be commerce.  Again, focus your attention on the things you can control and change. 

"Hasta la vista, baby!"

The opinions and viewpoints expressed herein are those of the author.  Community Investment Corporation makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy or forward-looking guidance of the material.  Readers are encouraged to conduct their own, independent research and consult professional advisors before making any decisions.  Oh, and one other thing - none of this was written by AI, except where noted.